Church & politics in post-elections Congo

Religion has figured prominently on the Congolese political landscape since the colonial period. About 80% of Congolese claim to be Christian, predominantly Roman Catholic (50%).
The magnitude of the Catholic Church’s economic and social role is demonstrated by its capacity to provide health care and education - even after the collapse of State structures and institutions. It is also a political force: it contributed to destabilizing Mobutu through peaceful marches, sit-ins and demonstrations.
The Catholic Church has proven to be consistent and coherent – unlike, for example, most of Congo’s international partners.
Numerous prayer groups, exorcists, messianic and prophetic churches and evangelists have proliferated since the 1990s, especially in Kinshasa. These movements and individuals are popular not just among the poor: they recruit intensively among members of the political and security establishment. The spiritual leaders of these Christian ‘neo-communities’ are opinion leaders that occupy increasingly important positions of power. Methodist pastor and President of the CENI, Mulanda Ngoy is the most notable example.
Syncretic sects combine Christianity with traditional beliefs and rituals. The most popular of these sects is Kimbanguism, with around 3 million followers. Most non-Christians follow either traditional religions or syncretic sects. Witchcraft and sorcery remain important social realities.
The recent call by Congolese bishops for peaceful protests to be held next week follows an explicit condemnation of the government, referring to ‘treachery, lies and terror’ during the electoral process. Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo described the results as ‘illegitimate’ saying they 'conformed neither to truth nor to justice'.
The Catholic Church network had 30,000 election observers whose asssessment corroborated massive fraude, irregularities and intimidation.
The National Conference of Catholic Bishops (CENCO) in a message entitled ‘The Courage of Truth’ called for the mistakes made in the presidential and parliamentary elections to be ‘corrected’ without however calling for the elections to be annulled. The message also implored security forces to 'disobey unjust orders'.
The bishops challenged the members of the Independent National Electoral Commission to change their practices or resign following the mismanagement of last year's presidential and parliamentary elections.
The Independent National Electoral Commission 'no longer enjoys the confidence of the population', the bishops said, and asked the parliament to review its composition and include members of the civil society for more independence.
While some of the elements in this declaraction are not sufficiently explicit , such as ‘correcting’ mistakes, the message itself is clear. The Church – with the tacit support of the Vatican – has opted to rachet up the pressure on an increasingly vulnerable government.

Post-election worries

Congolese and international observers, first suspected, and then documented numerous irregularities in the electoral process. The big day has passed; today, reports describe the situation as being relatively calm.

Tomorrow will bring other problems – ntango eza ndeko ya liwa. Giving some examples of these irregularities will help frame what the ambiance will be once results are announced.

Compared to the 2006 vote, this one was more violent and fewer voters cast their ballot. MONUSCO and other international observers witnessed attempts to cheat.

Reporting from Goma, Cindy McCain - founding member of the Eastern Congo Initiative and wife of Arizona Senator John McCain - referred to technical difficulties from the polling stations that were clearly organized.

The electoral process initiated in 2006 legitimized poor leadership. Kabila used his first five-year term to consolidate power at the expense of the Congolese people. His position as incumbent, plus the money generated by the selling off of state assets at bargain prices, enabled him to dominate the campaign landscape.

Candidate Kabila had a disproportionate access to state media.

Kabila illegally used state planes, jeeps and helicopters while on the campaign trail.

The state security forces under Kabila’s control systematically obstructed opposition candidates from campaigning – notably Etienne Tshisekedi.

Kabila’s clansman Pastor Ngoy Mulunda, head of the Commission électorale indépendante, was partisan, not independent.

Fictitious polling stations and pre-marked ballot papers were discovered. Stuffing the ballot boxes is not uncommon in Africa, but inventing fictitious polling stations seems to be a new twist on Congolese creativity.

The Belgian company Zetes organized the high tech services needed for voter registration. Zetes reported that hundreds of thousands of voters were registered twice.

Some European Union election observers were withdrawn from polling stations on election day for their own security, testifying to the potential for things to explode.

Some opposition candidates – but not Tshesikedi - have called for the annulment of the elections because of these irregularities.

Theodore Trefon speaks with BBC News: "Failed state: can DR Congo recover"

As the Democratic Republic of Congo prepares for just its second general elections in four decades on 28 November, BBC News spoke with Trefon on whether whether this failed state, still recovering from a war which led to an estimated four million deaths, can ever be rebuilt.

Read the full article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa

Congo’s social agenda

Can logistical obstacles be overcome to allow people vote on 28 November? How will the runner-up and his supporters react to the results? Will Congo follow the Côte d’Ivoire scenario? Will the disenfranchised of Masina, Kimbanseke and other ‘zones rouges’ of Kinshasa take to the streets? These are important questions. They are timely and require immediate planning.

But focus on these questions tends to mask other priorities. The recently released UNDP report on human development indicators puts elections hype in perspective. It ranks DRC at the bottom of the list of 187 countries surveyed. The new Doing Business report also reveals Congo’s fragility. Already poorly positioned last year, DRC dropped down two points this year, ranking 178 out of 183 countries.

Some macroeconomic stability has been achieved under the aggressive tutelage of the FMI and IMF. Public works efforts at reconnecting the fragmented territory need to be acknowledged thanks to the EU and China.

Security in the Kivus remains alarming despite the UN’s largest and most expensive peacekeeping force. Five years after the election of Joseph Kabila, ordinary people have not seen social benefits. They remain hungry and poor, angry and confused. The 'cinq chantiers' development program is an unequivocal failure. The current government is reproducing the historic dynamics of institutionalizing humiliation.

Kabila or Tshisekedi (or Kamerhe or Kengo) as president matters little. The way that power will be structured to improve the well-being of ordinary Congolese after the elections is the real issue. With attention riveted on the elections and the personality politics character of the campaign, people’s needs and expectations tend to be overlooked. Holding elections is important but designing and implementing a participative social agenda is equally essential.

Leadership issues in Congo

Boston University's Leadership Corner asked me to comment on leadership issues in DRC.

Below is the text of that interview:

BU in Congo

Dr. Trefon, thank you for spending some time with me. One of the topics that BU students in the MSL program tackle is the definition of the term "leadership." It is a concept that seems simple at first, yet grows more complex the more you probe it. You have spent the past 25 years studying the politics and anthropology of state/society relations in Congo/Zaire. With that breadth of experience, how have you come to understand what it means to be an effective leader?

The main problem facing Congo today is precisely the lack of responsible leadership. In a country where political authorities do very little for their constituents, when officials do just a little, they are venerated. But this is populism and not real leadership. There are few outstanding figures on the political landscape with vision, those who are able to bring an end to corrupt government, reduce poverty, solve the country’s security problems or improve the well-being of ordinary people. This would require the talent of being able to mobilize people around shared objectives, the power to deal forcefully and pragmatically with regional and international partners and the capacity to manage the macro-economic challenges facing what has unfortunately become one of Africa’s notoriously failed states. President Kabila does not have these leadership credentials; ex-dictator Mobutu had the charisma and flair of what is sometimes expected of an African ‘big man’ but he used it against the interest of the people; the first democratically elected prime minister, Patrice Lumumba, was assassinated before having the chance to deploy his leadership skills.

The situational model of leadership focuses not only on the leader personally but also the context in which the leader operates. In Congo Masquerade, you focus on the ingrained political culture of corruption among the Congolese elite. What situational challenges do leaders (both within and external to the Congo) face in trying to improve the quality of life of the ordinary Congolese? In other words, besides being a strong leader in and of himself, what must a politician know about the Congolese system in order to be effective?

After 32 years of dictatorship, violent conflict and machinations orchestrated by Rwanda and a very difficult – but still unsuccessful political transition towards democracy, everything on the state-building agenda is priority. Public health, education, road infrastructure, providing people with water and electricity, re-engineering public service provision, creating the enabling conditions for political participation, etc. are all priorities. But there is no master plan shared by the Congolese authorities and their international partners. While many programs appear to make sense at the theoretical level, implementation is a real problem. The country is also vast (the size of Western Europe) and diverse (in terms of distribution of natural wealth, ethnicity and population density). Managing a country that is fragmented in this way is an additional challenge. Probably the most important thing for a Congolese politician or international partner to bear in mind is the only thing that is predictable in Congo is the unpredictable.

How does the ordinary, everyday Congolese citizen view the leadership of his or her country?

Congo is one, but plural at the same time. Again, the country is diverse and fragmented so it is impossible to expect a consensus on anything, let alone on leadership. This is a very hot question because presidential and legislative elections will take place at the end of November. Perceptions of political leadership in Congo have to be understood in terms of social issues. People are very frustrated by the lack of progress in the government’s development program known as ‘cinq chantiers’. There is a lot of justifiable grumbling about lack of water, electricity, roads and access to health services. Kabila has strong support in some provinces but faces heavy opposition in others. The fact that he was able to amend the constitution, to have a single round of voting instead of the two-round system is a distinct advantage for him so he is likely to win the elections. Winning the elections is one step, transforming it into legitimate authority based on respect and transparent negotiation is something else. People have become very skeptical about how much government can really do for them and have consequently come to rely on their own home-grown systems to survive.

Students learn in class at BU about leader emergence, or how one individual rises out of the crowd and assumes a meaningful leadership role. Often this emergence is due not only to the individual's traits, but to the perception of the individual by the others in the group. Have you witnessed any instances where an otherwise ordinary individual rises up from the ranks and assumes a leadership role, no matter how small?

As people expect relatively little from government, new forms of social organization emerge. Congo, however, remains a very hierarchical society, perhaps something that is a spillover from Belgian colonialism. Religious leaders, civil society activists, traditional chiefs, diaspora representatives, successful businessmen and women and even musicians are leaders and opinion formers that political authorities have to deal with.

I know that everyone at BU Brussels is very happy to have you join the team. Turning to your role at BU, what do you feel are the most important lessons that students can learn about leadership? What new understanding and knowledge do you hope to pass on to them in your class?


I’ve devoted the past twenty-five years to Congo/Zaire as a researcher, project manager, professor and consultant. My approach is policy oriented and I have tried to narrow the conceptual gap between political science theories on development and state-building and a grassroots, anthropological understanding of very local-level social dynamics.

My course at BUB accordingly focuses on international development. Specifically, the discourses, practices, strategies, pitfalls, challenges - and when relevant - success stories of this vast agenda. I try to avoid over conceptualizing or theorizing about these issues because at the Master’s level, students seem to be more motivated by pragmatic examples and case studies. Are the Millennium Developments Goals attainable? How does micro-finance work? How do you carry out stakeholder analysis in the field? What are the links between access to natural resources and well-being? The main messages that I try to convey are one, development is a very complex issue so we have to be culturally sensitive and humble, two, be open-minded – bringing in the private sector in development strategies, for example, is something that I explore with students and three, be prepared for the unexpected – the role of social media in the Arab spring is a good case in point.

--

For further information: http://buleadershipcorner.blogspot.com

Pre-election violence in Kinshasa: a hint of what’s to come



Dead soldier, Kinshasa, March 2007 @Getty Images

Pre- and post-election violence is to be expected in Kinshasa because insufficient effort has been made at trying to restore people’s faith in government or in improving their well-being. The government’s main objective in the past five years has been regime consolidation and personal enrichment, abetted by Congo’s compliant international partners.

Factional violence shook Kinshasa last week just hours after Etienne Tshisekedi officially entered the race for the country’s highest office by registering with the CENI.

UDPS headquarters was vandalized and the studios of a radio and television station close to the opposition - Radio Lisanga - were set ablaze on 5 September. A PPRD office was also destroyed. The next day police broke up a UDPS demonstration, killing one and wounding at least two others. The following night, the Congo Embassy in Paris was attacked with Molotov cocktails by unidentified assailants. Pursuing opposition politics abroad is an indicator of political repression back home.

Governor of the Kinshasa ville-province, André Kimbuta (whose son Gaylord Kimbuta was murdered in Belgium earlier this year) temporarily banned political demonstrations. UDPS and PPRD activists declared they would respect the ban. Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo spoke out, appealing for calm. UDPS has been demonstration in front of the CENI offices demanding access to their computer files to ensure transparency in the registration and voting procresses.

These flare ups are harbingers of what will come following elections. Results will be contested by the runner up with a possible Côte d’Ivoire style stalemate. The type of violence that resulted in hundreds of deaths in March 2007 when overzealous troops loyal to Kabila clashed with Bemba militiamen in Kinshasa won’t surprise anyone. Capturing power is one thing, but transforming it into a social agenda is something else.

Election snags in Congo

Pastor Ngoy Mulanda, president of the National Independant Electoral Commission - CENI, has systematically confirmed that elections will take place as scheduled on 28 November. But with less than three months to go, ballot boxes, voting booths and other equipment are unavailable. The material has not been delivered by Chinese, South African, German and Lebanese suppliers who have received 70% of their purchase fees. MONUSCO has committed to dispatching voting equipment within the country - but has refused to import it from abroad.

Ngoy has recalculated the budget. The new one is now $1.2 billion, up from $700 million. While international partners paid most of the voting costs five years ago, the brunt of the burden is on the Congolese government this time around. To generate money needed to carry out the polling, the government has proposed to sell of Gecamine state assets in what has been reported as shady deals.

There are growing concerns that the elections will consequently be delayed. While this is not a major problem for most of Congo’s international partners who are more preoccupied about fairness and transparency, delays would be severely condemned by opposition leaders. This is somewhat of a paradox because the opposition seems to timidly making progress in talks about presenting a single opposition candidate - so they could benefit from delays. Another concern about delays is that they will give the Kabila camp more time to figure out how to cheat on results reporting. This will be done by a sophisticated computer system that even the best intentioned elections monitors will be unable to control.

Kamerhe, Rwanda’s Trojan Horse?

Etienne Tshisekedi’s resounding success in Katanga and Kinshasa, where he filled the Stade des Martyres with over 80,000 followers, has given the Kabila camp good reason to worry. Only a few months ago, Kabila was riding high – the opposition was fragmented and there was cause to doubt the viability of Tshisekedi’s candidacy. Isn’t he too old and frail, intellectually diminished and unable to consolidate factions within his Union pour la démocratie et le progrès social ? His comeback has responded to those doubts.

If his success is a concern to Kabila, it is also a reason for Vital Kamerhe to rethink his strategy. It would make more electoral sense for Kamerhe, who has a relatively solid powerbase in theEast (but more in North Kivu than in South Kivu) to lend support to Tshisekedi in exchange for assurances to be appointed Prime Minister. Bemba hasn’t said much about what he thinks about a single opposition candidate, and his position counts (even though he currently sits in an International Criminel Court prison cell).

Though it seems rather far-fetched, some Congolese believe that Kamerhe is Rwanda’s ‘Trojan Horse’. The 'falling out' between Kabila and Kamerhe is seen as part of a Machiavellic scheme to destabilize the opposition. The rift they claim is a trick, master-minded by Paul Kagame who needs Kabila to stay in power so Rwanda can pursue its campaign to Balkanize the Congo.

Kinshasa voter frustration



Jardin Zoologique de Kinshasa

 32 million Congolese registered to vote in the operation carried out by the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) that recently came to a close. This is up from 25 million during the previous round five years ago. The process was highly politicized and took place despite major technical and logistical obstacles.

The registration situation in Kinshasa, where the population voted massively for Jean-Pierre Bemba in 2005 - and where President Kabila remains unpopular - was analyzed by Guy De Boeck in the Revue Dialogue n° 35. Although the expected figure was 3.5 million, 3.3 million people registered in the capital.

Four categories of problems were identified.
(i) Technical and logistical obstacles included the long distance some people had to walk to reach a registration center (up to 15 km), disorder in queues, delays in processing due to computer breakdowns or the lack of election kits and the issuance of cards that are not conform to standards.

(ii) ‘social’ problems: because electoral agents were not paid, they took excessively long breaks  and aggravated the waiting period. They also insisted on people paying for their voter registration cards, which is against the free and fair logic of the process.

(iii) establishing the real identity of voters was a major problem. Police officers served as electoral agents and there was poor communication about voting procedures.  Candidates anxious to boost votes in their constituencies bussed people to their voting districts outside of the Kinshasa city limits.

(iv) a host of psychological factors were also reported. People are frustrated by the lack of social and democratic progress since voting five years ago so are discouraged by the electoral process. They believe Bemba won in 2005 but was robbed of his rights.  Changing the rules of the game – going from two elections rounds to one – is perceived as a harbinger of fraud and manipulation. There is clear lack of confidence in the CENI.

Kinois do not have high expectations and are largely disillusioned by the electoral process. The CENI probably did not make it particularly easy for registration in Kinshasa given Kabila’s general lack of popularity there. In the probable event of a Kabila victory nationwide, the key question is whether or not they will transform apathy into mobilization. This will be determined largely by the mots d’ordre given by opposition leaders.

Tshisekedi banned - journalist harrassed

Congolese journalist Serge Bitangilayi was detained and intimidated by officers of the notorious Agence nationale des renseignements (ANR) in Mbuji-Mayi this week. His crime? Broadcasting images of UDPS leader Etienne Tshisekedi. Kasai provincial authorities banned broadcasts of the veteran opposition heavyweight who will compete with Kabila for the presidency later this year.

Etienne Tshisekedi

Harassment of media professionals is ongoing proof of how factions in the Kabila government are strangling freedom of expression in the run up to elections.

The incident was condemned by Observatoire de la Liberté de la Presse en Afrique (OLPA) and by Journaliste en Danger (JED).

Coup de théâtre à l'Assemblée nationale

Palais du Peuple - RDC

Les journaux kinois de cette semaine et Radio Okapi évoquent la coupure de l’électricité au Palais du Peuple du mardi 24 mai qui n’a pas permis aux députés de clôturer leurs débats sur des points de la loi électorale qui divisent Opposition et Majorité. Les Députés ont quitté la Salle de Congrès du Palais du Peuple en se servant de leurs téléphones portables, comme des lampes torches, pour sortir de l’obscurité.

Selon certains Députés, cette coupure de l’énergie n’était pas fortuite mais c’était un manœuvre préméditée. La Prospérité précise que ‘la brusque interruption aurait été provoquée pour permettre à la majorité de procéder au rappel des troupes pour obtenir le passage de certaines dispositions de la loi contestées et par les Députés de la majorité et par ceux de l’opposition’.

D’autres évoquent tout simplement que le Palais du Peuple ne serait pas à l’abri des pannes qui touchent régulièrement la capitale.

Rappelons d’autres coupures d’électricité à des fins stratégiques : ‘panne’ à la morgue où se trouvait le corps de Floribert Chebeye, assassiné en juin 2010 ou encore la prise d’Inga par les Rwandais qui a plongé toute la ville de Kinshasa dans l’obscurité avec des conséquences humaines et économiques monstrueuses, provoquant ‘la bataille de Kinshasa’ d’août 1998.

Moïse Katumbi says goodbye - really?

Future ex-governor, Moïse Katumbi

Not many Congolese political leaders leave office voluntarily. The charismatic governor of Katanga (and multi-millionaire businessman!) just set an example by declaring he will not run for office in the upcoming elections. In a country were political authorities do practically nothing for people, the slightest effort is widely acclaimed. Katumbi is described as a mix between Chavez and Berlusconi.

It is not easy to connect the dots in his declarations. He complained of being unable to accomplish his development projects for the mineral-rich province because Kinshasa did not allow provinces to retain the much disputed 40% tax base that was stipulated in the Constitution. This is a direct criticism of Kinshasa politics – la kinoiserie. At the same time, he urged the population to register to vote and support Joseph Kabila whose campaign he funded in 2006.
Officially he wants to devote his efforts to his business activities and his champion football team T.P. Mazembe.

Katumbi will certainly resurface as a populist political avatar - reculer pour mieux sauter.

It’s the elections, stupid!

‘It’s the elections, stupid!’ The paraphrase of a famous Bill Clinton campaign slogan sums up the priorities being discussed about current Congolese politics. The new ICG report ‘Congo: The Electoral Dilemma’ provides a clear picture of the overwhelming challenges facing the whole range of stakeholders: Congolese authorities, opposition groups, civil society and the country’s international partners.

According to the report, the government is confronted by the need to either respect the constitutional deadline and ‘botch’ the elections or postpone them and thus enter into a situation of constitutional illegality: some informed Western sources appear to prefer this option. In both circumstances, the government’s legitimacy will be subject to new criticism. While the report provides excellent analysis of the political situation (as well as technical, financial and logistical issues) its recommendations are less convincing because they would be difficult to implement on the Congolese political landscape. The recommendations do however emphasize the necessity for international partners (who are paying for the elections cost either directly or indirectly) to keep up the pressure on the government to guarantee transparency.

My view is that elections will be held more or less on schedule because Kabila plans on capitalizing on his efforts to consolidate power, a process that has been ongoing since he was elected five years ago. He needs to be re-elected before the opposition can get organized and present a viable candidate.

To read the latest ICG report, click below:
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/africa/central-africa/dr-congo/175-congo-the-electoral-dilemma.aspx

Masquerade électorale au Congo

L’actualité politique en RDC sera de plus en plus dominée par les débats autour des élections prévues pour la fin de l’année. Il s’agit, notamment, de la nouvelle loi électorale, le rôle du CENI, l’évolution de la composition de la famille présidentielle, le financement des élections (y compris la participation des partenaires internationaux), la sensibilisation des électeurs et comment l’opposition va pouvoir se positionner.

Or, il n’est pas inutile de rappeler que confondre élections et changement démocratique sera une grave erreur. Nous l’avons déjà vu en 2006 : gagner les élections et s’approprier le pouvoir ne se traduit point par l’amélioration de l’accès à l’espace politique des Congolais ordinaires. L’objectif du Président Kabila et ses alliés est la consolidation du pouvoir et non pas son partage.

Les élections vont avoir lieu, peut-être avec un retard, et Kabila sera probablement réélu. Mais cela n’est pas la question la plus intéressante. Le vrai débat c’est comment les élections pourraient contribuer aux changements positifs. C’est une question le plus souvent escamotée – et ça c’est la malheureuse masquerade.

Run if you are rich

President Kabila and his allies are not taking any chances when it comes to their re-election. Earlier this year the constitution was amended, replacing the two-round presidential voting system with a single round system. This is a clear advantage for the incumbent. This week, a new law has been tabled: presidential candidates have to post a $100,000 non-reimbursable bond and candidates to both houses of Parliament, $5,000. If only the rich can run for public office, what is the prospect of renewing political actors and ushering in new leadership?

Welcome to the Congo Masquerade blog

The aim of this blog is to update and put into perspective the analysis provided in the forthcoming book, Congo Masquerade: the politics of aid inefficiency and reform failure (Zed Books).

This blog will provide updated facts and analysis that will track political change in Congo during this crucial year when elections are supposed to take place.

The Congo Masquerade blog should be a space where activists and experts on Congo can share views on the evolution of politics, elections, economy and security issues in one of Africa's most notorious failed states.

Welcome.