Political Maturity in Congo

The obvious news coming out of Congo in the past few months relates to electoral fraud, human rights violations and attempts at forming a government.

Examples of political maturity on the part of ordinary Congolese seem to me, however, to be under-reported. I spent a good part of March in Congo (Kinshasa and Bas-Congo) asking people what they consider to be signs of political maturity.

Informants bitterly reported that authorities (particularly those at the CENI) proved to be brilliant in their ability to cheat and manipulate the electoral process. But there was also a clear sense of awareness, maturity, patience and good judgement on the part of ordinary people. They claim to be informed of what is going on on the political landscape. They are committed to keeping Kabila under scrutiny saying ‘ce Monsieur doit être plus prudent’ and ‘la pression peut affaiblir’.

Despite the huge potential for post-electoral violence, people did not express strongly felt political frustration through violent means. There were incidents but these were relatively limited. Most of the violence that did take place was carried out by the police and military – not by the people.

The discourse of violence also mutated. Heeding the lessons of the Arab Spring, Kinois claim their cell phones (tshombo) are their weapons and text messages bullets. This was a concern to the government which shut down SMS transmission from 3-28 December.

Another example of maturity is voting patterns. Of course we don’t really know who won the presidential vote but the legislative results are truly remarkable. The vast majority of MPs who sat in the previous legislature were not re-elected. They were sanctioned for not delivering on their 2006 promises. They voted themselves $6,000 per month salaries and perks while neglecting social priorities.

People also said that the free tee shirts and tins of sardines that were distributed on the campaign trail were not going to influence their vote as in the past.

Important political figures – even some Ministers (José Endundo - Environment, Alexis Tambwe Mwamba – Foreign Affairs, Martin Kabwelulu - Mining, Raymond Tshibanda - International Cooperation…) were not re-elected. This proves that a well financed campaign is not enough to maintain the trust of a frustrated constituency.

Alphonse Awenza Makiaba, a man with no political experience who feeds his family by transporting bags of rice and manioc on his bicycle, was elected to represent the city of Kisangani at the national level! This candidat des pauvres generated massive popular support precisely because voters could empathize with him.

While ethnicity structures Congolese society, last year’s voting was not always tribal. The election of Désiré Khonde Vila-ki-Kanda is a case in point. Originally from Bas-Congo where he ran and lost in 2006, he now won a seat in the North Kivu city of Goma where voters remembered his accomplishments as Provincial Governor during the Mobutu years.

Dictatorship, war and social stagnation have taught Congolese to be patient. And patience is another sign of political maturity. While some people say that the election fiasco has discouraged them in participating in the voting exercise, others are already gearing up for the next round in 2016.

Who is in the cockpit?

Joseph Kabila has been invisible for the past month. Self-proclaimed president Etienne Tshisekedi will reveal the names of his cabinet any day now. The CENI has postponed the announcement of the legislative results until further notice. No one knows when provincial elections that will lead to the indirect vote for national senators will take place.

Who is running the country during this stalemate? Who has been running it for the past ten years? Joseph Kabila and his allies - in the Congolese tradition of extreme political secrecy – govern by network, not by institutions. Many official figures even at the ministerial level wield far less power than shadow advisors and partners.

Who is in control?

My opinion is we don’t really know. While there are some obvious heavy weights, relations between them are as unclear as who pockets earnings from mineral sales. A coup d’état in this context of political vacuum, grumbling by the military, social frustration and regime isolation really wouldn’t surprise anyone.

The éminence grise of the Kabila presidency is Augustin Katumba Mwanke. He does not hold an official position in the Kabila cabinet but his voice in economic matters is taken seriously. Already close to Kabila père, this Katangais was behind the Congo-China deal. He is very influential in the mining sector.

Adolphe Lumanu from Western Kasai Province, Minister of the Interior and Security, is another Kabila faithful. His appointment as minister followed a term as Kabila’s head of cabinet. Lumanu had the task of announcing the suspension of Numbi following the assassination of Floribert Chebeya in June 2010.

John Numbi had been Kabila’s security boss since 2007, holding the title of General Police Inspector. This native of North Katanga was not sacked but suspended and replaced by the Tutsi general Charles Bisengimana. Very close to the president, Numbi was the architect of some delicate special operations such as the joint Rwanda-Congo military operation in North Kivu and the bloody repression of the Bundu dia Kongo political religious movement in Bas-Congo.

Kabila succeeded in placing a faithful ally as president of the National Assembly to replace Vital Kamerhe. Evariste Boshab, from Western Kasai Province, has proved his loyalty to Kabila as head the president’s party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD). Given the composition of the National Assembly with its various political groupings, including loud opposition voices, Boshab’s role requires finesse and a lot of political savvy. His strong support from the all powerful Katumba Mwanke facilitates his role as institutional deal broker.

Another representative of the Katanga establishment is Jean-Claude Masangu Mulongo. Governor of the Central Bank of Congo since 1997, he is one of the country’s leading economists. First appointed by Mzee Kabila, he was confirmed by Joseph. Known as the father of the Congolese franc, Masangu played an important role in reconnecting the Congo with the Bretton Woods institutions.

Katanga Governor Moïse Katumbi is a rather unique actor. Super rich businessman turned politician, Katumbi combines tough business acumen with a populist approach to governing the mineral rich province. Respected and liked by the Katangese, he supported Kabila’s bid for re-election – obviously for the sake of his commercial empire.

Kabila’s twin sister Jeannette seems to have a strong influence over the president, especially with respect to commercial affairs.

Israeli businessman Dan Gettler, active in the mining sector and generous contributor to Kabila’s campaigns, is another personality that merits special mention. He was a key figure in the selling off of state mining assets to private companies at lower-than-value prices.

Church & politics in post-elections Congo

Religion has figured prominently on the Congolese political landscape since the colonial period. About 80% of Congolese claim to be Christian, predominantly Roman Catholic (50%).
The magnitude of the Catholic Church’s economic and social role is demonstrated by its capacity to provide health care and education - even after the collapse of State structures and institutions. It is also a political force: it contributed to destabilizing Mobutu through peaceful marches, sit-ins and demonstrations.
The Catholic Church has proven to be consistent and coherent – unlike, for example, most of Congo’s international partners.
Numerous prayer groups, exorcists, messianic and prophetic churches and evangelists have proliferated since the 1990s, especially in Kinshasa. These movements and individuals are popular not just among the poor: they recruit intensively among members of the political and security establishment. The spiritual leaders of these Christian ‘neo-communities’ are opinion leaders that occupy increasingly important positions of power. Methodist pastor and President of the CENI, Mulanda Ngoy is the most notable example.
Syncretic sects combine Christianity with traditional beliefs and rituals. The most popular of these sects is Kimbanguism, with around 3 million followers. Most non-Christians follow either traditional religions or syncretic sects. Witchcraft and sorcery remain important social realities.
The recent call by Congolese bishops for peaceful protests to be held next week follows an explicit condemnation of the government, referring to ‘treachery, lies and terror’ during the electoral process. Archbishop Laurent Monsengwo described the results as ‘illegitimate’ saying they 'conformed neither to truth nor to justice'.
The Catholic Church network had 30,000 election observers whose asssessment corroborated massive fraude, irregularities and intimidation.
The National Conference of Catholic Bishops (CENCO) in a message entitled ‘The Courage of Truth’ called for the mistakes made in the presidential and parliamentary elections to be ‘corrected’ without however calling for the elections to be annulled. The message also implored security forces to 'disobey unjust orders'.
The bishops challenged the members of the Independent National Electoral Commission to change their practices or resign following the mismanagement of last year's presidential and parliamentary elections.
The Independent National Electoral Commission 'no longer enjoys the confidence of the population', the bishops said, and asked the parliament to review its composition and include members of the civil society for more independence.
While some of the elements in this declaraction are not sufficiently explicit , such as ‘correcting’ mistakes, the message itself is clear. The Church – with the tacit support of the Vatican – has opted to rachet up the pressure on an increasingly vulnerable government.

What’s next in Congo?

A handful of opposition protestors were shot down by Kabila’s Republican Guard over the week end while the stench of burning tires permeated the already polluted air of Kinshasa.

But the doomsday scenario didn’t unfold – at least for the moment. Fears of mass violence in Congo’s capital city of ten million hungry inhabitants appear to have been exaggerated. Congo’s demonstrators do not want to be martyrs like those of the Arab world. The fear of winding up in The Hague at the International Criminal Court calmed the tempers of both Kabila and opposition leaders.

Frustrated Congolese took to the streets from Johannesburg to Ottawa, London and Paris. Chants of ‘Tshi Tshi President!’ in the Brussels Congolese district mobilized a crowd that accused Belgium of supporting Kabila until 400 protestors were arrested Saturday night.

Kinshasa was cautiously back to normal Monday morning. Taxis were overcrowded and street vendors were out selling baguettes and plastic bags of drinking water. The heavy Chinese-made padlocks securing small businesses that had braced against threats of pillaging were unlocked.

Elections took place but they were flawed. Approximately 17 million people cast their ballots, representing just under 60% of eligible voters. Kabila was declared winner by the Independent Electoral Commission – what many Congolese refer to as the Non Independent Electoral Commission.

Etienne Tshisekedi and his followers have strong arguments to contest the results. The Carter Center and the European Union observation teams documented ‘serious irregularities’ in the voting procedures and the compilation of results. Reports from 2,000 polling stations in Kinshasa were lost – Kinshasa is pro-opposition. Voter turn-out in pro-Kabila Katanga exceeded 100%! This challenges the veracity of the results.

International observers however are far less of a threat to Kabila than the Catholic Church which has also come out with a strong critique of the results. Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo said ‘official results were neither true nor just’. His voice counts in this fanatically religious country.

Kabila is in a position of vulnerability, especially in Kinshasa where his approval rating is rock bottom. Imagine President Obama being persona non grata in Washington, D.C. That is Kabila’s situation in the city that is the seat of the country’s institutions.

Tshesikedi declared himself winner. The 78 year old veteran opposition leader contributed to destabilizing the Mobutu dictatorship in the early 1990s. He is not going to bow down to Kabila or be shoehorned into a power-sharing arrangement. Stubborn and megalomaniac, Tshesikedi is also unpredictable. This explains why Western diplomats actually prefer a Kabila wearing the emperor’s clothes. Despite certain contentious issues with him – such as the lack of investment security in the mining sector – he does represent a certain sense of continuity.

It is still too early to tell what will happen in the coming days and weeks. Tshedikedi has more to win by peaceful action than by inciting street movements. The official declaration by the Supreme Court will be a non event. Kabila appointed its members so it is favorable to him. He will applaud, Tshi Tshi will cry foul. The announcement of the parliamentary elections in January will be more interesting because opposition MPs could outnumber Kabila loyalists. This would slow down the functioning of an already sluggish government even further.

Congo is heading for a protracted institutional stalemate opposing an incumbent entourage that wants to continue pillaging the country’s resources against a runner-up with a huge political ego. ‘When elephants fight’, says an African proverb, ‘the grass is trampled’.

Post-election worries

Congolese and international observers, first suspected, and then documented numerous irregularities in the electoral process. The big day has passed; today, reports describe the situation as being relatively calm.

Tomorrow will bring other problems – ntango eza ndeko ya liwa. Giving some examples of these irregularities will help frame what the ambiance will be once results are announced.

Compared to the 2006 vote, this one was more violent and fewer voters cast their ballot. MONUSCO and other international observers witnessed attempts to cheat.

Reporting from Goma, Cindy McCain - founding member of the Eastern Congo Initiative and wife of Arizona Senator John McCain - referred to technical difficulties from the polling stations that were clearly organized.

The electoral process initiated in 2006 legitimized poor leadership. Kabila used his first five-year term to consolidate power at the expense of the Congolese people. His position as incumbent, plus the money generated by the selling off of state assets at bargain prices, enabled him to dominate the campaign landscape.

Candidate Kabila had a disproportionate access to state media.

Kabila illegally used state planes, jeeps and helicopters while on the campaign trail.

The state security forces under Kabila’s control systematically obstructed opposition candidates from campaigning – notably Etienne Tshisekedi.

Kabila’s clansman Pastor Ngoy Mulunda, head of the Commission électorale indépendante, was partisan, not independent.

Fictitious polling stations and pre-marked ballot papers were discovered. Stuffing the ballot boxes is not uncommon in Africa, but inventing fictitious polling stations seems to be a new twist on Congolese creativity.

The Belgian company Zetes organized the high tech services needed for voter registration. Zetes reported that hundreds of thousands of voters were registered twice.

Some European Union election observers were withdrawn from polling stations on election day for their own security, testifying to the potential for things to explode.

Some opposition candidates – but not Tshesikedi - have called for the annulment of the elections because of these irregularities.

Pre-election violence in Kinshasa: a hint of what’s to come



Dead soldier, Kinshasa, March 2007 @Getty Images

Pre- and post-election violence is to be expected in Kinshasa because insufficient effort has been made at trying to restore people’s faith in government or in improving their well-being. The government’s main objective in the past five years has been regime consolidation and personal enrichment, abetted by Congo’s compliant international partners.

Factional violence shook Kinshasa last week just hours after Etienne Tshisekedi officially entered the race for the country’s highest office by registering with the CENI.

UDPS headquarters was vandalized and the studios of a radio and television station close to the opposition - Radio Lisanga - were set ablaze on 5 September. A PPRD office was also destroyed. The next day police broke up a UDPS demonstration, killing one and wounding at least two others. The following night, the Congo Embassy in Paris was attacked with Molotov cocktails by unidentified assailants. Pursuing opposition politics abroad is an indicator of political repression back home.

Governor of the Kinshasa ville-province, André Kimbuta (whose son Gaylord Kimbuta was murdered in Belgium earlier this year) temporarily banned political demonstrations. UDPS and PPRD activists declared they would respect the ban. Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo spoke out, appealing for calm. UDPS has been demonstration in front of the CENI offices demanding access to their computer files to ensure transparency in the registration and voting procresses.

These flare ups are harbingers of what will come following elections. Results will be contested by the runner up with a possible Côte d’Ivoire style stalemate. The type of violence that resulted in hundreds of deaths in March 2007 when overzealous troops loyal to Kabila clashed with Bemba militiamen in Kinshasa won’t surprise anyone. Capturing power is one thing, but transforming it into a social agenda is something else.

Election snags in Congo

Pastor Ngoy Mulanda, president of the National Independant Electoral Commission - CENI, has systematically confirmed that elections will take place as scheduled on 28 November. But with less than three months to go, ballot boxes, voting booths and other equipment are unavailable. The material has not been delivered by Chinese, South African, German and Lebanese suppliers who have received 70% of their purchase fees. MONUSCO has committed to dispatching voting equipment within the country - but has refused to import it from abroad.

Ngoy has recalculated the budget. The new one is now $1.2 billion, up from $700 million. While international partners paid most of the voting costs five years ago, the brunt of the burden is on the Congolese government this time around. To generate money needed to carry out the polling, the government has proposed to sell of Gecamine state assets in what has been reported as shady deals.

There are growing concerns that the elections will consequently be delayed. While this is not a major problem for most of Congo’s international partners who are more preoccupied about fairness and transparency, delays would be severely condemned by opposition leaders. This is somewhat of a paradox because the opposition seems to timidly making progress in talks about presenting a single opposition candidate - so they could benefit from delays. Another concern about delays is that they will give the Kabila camp more time to figure out how to cheat on results reporting. This will be done by a sophisticated computer system that even the best intentioned elections monitors will be unable to control.